Three Ways in Which Pandemic Models May Perform a Pandemic

authored by: Lucie Alexandra White, Donal Khosrowi Djen-Gheschlaghi, Mathias Frisch
Abstract: Models not only represent but may also influence their targets in important ways. While models' abilities to influence outcomes has been studied in the context of economic models, often under the label ‘per-formativity', we argue that this phenomenon also pertains to epidemiological models, such as those used for forecasting the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. After identifying three ways in which a model by the Covid-19 Response Team at Imperial College London (Ferguson et al. 2020) may have influenced scientific advice, policy, and individual responses, we consider the implications of epidemiological models' performative capacities. We argue, first, that performativity may impair models' ability to successfully predict the course of an epidemic; but second, that it may provide an additional sense in which these models can be successful, namely by changing the course of an epidemic.
Organisation(s): Institute of Philosophy
Type: Article
Journal: Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics
Volume: 14
Pages: 110-127
No. of pages: 18
Publication date: 06.07.2021
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: Philosophy, Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.23941/EJPE.V14I1.582 (Access: Closed)

BibTeX

@article{9c56f4d9aca445c79bbe13ab760e4690,
title = "Three Ways in Which Pandemic Models May Perform a Pandemic",
abstract = "Models not only represent but may also influence their targets in important ways. While models' abilities to influence outcomes has been studied in the context of economic models, often under the label {\textquoteleft}per-formativity', we argue that this phenomenon also pertains to epidemiological models, such as those used for forecasting the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. After identifying three ways in which a model by the Covid-19 Response Team at Imperial College London (Ferguson et al. 2020) may have influenced scientific advice, policy, and individual responses, we consider the implications of epidemiological models' performative capacities. We argue, first, that performativity may impair models' ability to successfully predict the course of an epidemic; but second, that it may provide an additional sense in which these models can be successful, namely by changing the course of an epidemic.",
keywords = "Covid-19, epidemiological models, model evaluation, performativity, prediction, success",
author = "White, {Lucie Alexandra} and {Khosrowi Djen-Gheschlaghi}, Donal and Mathias Frisch",
note = "Funding Information: AUTHORS{\textquoteright} NOTE: The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their comprehensive and insightful feedback. Philippe van Basshuysen, Lucie White, and Mathias Frisch gratefully acknowledge the support of the Volkswagen Foundation. ",
year = "2021",
month = jul,
day = "6",
doi = "10.23941/EJPE.V14I1.582",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
pages = "110--127",
journal = "Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics",
number = "1",
}